The 2023 presidential election may not change much, but it’s important we think it will
The promise and perils of February 25
Welcome to this week’s edition of Second Guess. Did you know that 63% of Nigeria’s population are multidimensionally poor and cook with faeces, wood, or charcoal, rather than cleaner energy?
If you missed last week’s edition of this newsletter, catch up: I argued that Artificial Intelligence won't take our jobs yet, but things are going to get weird.
And now, to today’s story…
Two days ago, Bola Ahmed Tinubu visited Abeokuta, the city where I currently live, for his presidential campaign. I didn’t know about it until 8 p.m. when I was returning from the gym and listening in on the passengers’ impassioned conversation in the Micra I took home. They were complaining—in melodious Yoruba-English-pidgin code-switching—about the All Progressives Party (APC) and its infamous presidential candidate.
The driver swore APC is wasting money to campaign and buy votes. According to him, no well-meaning person would vote for such a shame of a party and walking vegetable of a candidate. He reckoned that if Yoruba had chosen Osibanjo, he might have supported him. But Tinubu? He’d rather die. A middle-aged passenger said Tinubu doesn’t stand for the Yoruba spirit. That’s why she’s going to vote Labour Party, and only omo ale would vote for Tinubu. Everyone in the cab agreed and prayed for the downfall of the incumbent political party.
It was a little strange to hear two sets of passengers vehemently support Peter Obi, going by increasingly polarised internet conversations. As a South-Southerner who can’t speak Yoruba (fluently) and living in an ancient Yoruba city, I typically steer away from political conversations as a matter of self-perseverance. But after spending the last 10 months indoors, it’s refreshing to finally go outside and touch the grass.
I’ve listened in on many more conversations since then—at viewing centers, shops on my street, the gym, market—about election predictions. These debates lie precariously at the crossroads between tribal loyalty and voting right despite it.
Whoever wins in 2023 is unlikely to make any huge improvements if the institutions surrounding it aren’t revamped
The promise
One month away from the presidential elections, nearly 89% of Nigerians feel that the country is heading in the wrong direction, and 77% are dissatisfied with Nigeriua’s democracy. But we have reasons to believe that the upcoming polls will be an improvement over the previous years. For one, President Buhari has repeatedly claimed he will foster a credible, transparent electoral process as part of his legacy.
He’s put Legal reforms in place and deployed technologies like the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) to improve voter accreditation and results transmission from polling booths across the country. And then there’s also the surge of new voter registrations, especially among young people in recent times, suggesting that finally, Nigerians believe their votes might stand a chance in charting the path for our country’s bright future.
Born from this hope is Peter Obi, whose stellar public record made him the popular choice by Nigerians on social media in this election cycle, and is now the iconic face to lead the most third-force movement in Nigeria’s recent history.
Peter Obi seems to be the bridge between the old and the new, the past and the future. His ability to skirt the line between establishment power brokers—he refers to them as ‘elder brother/sister”—and counter-cultural rhetoric is Obi’s slickest shtick. Where previous revolutionaries scorned or shunned establishment politicians, Obi’s has carried everyone along, diplomatically engaging all stakeholders including those on opposing sides. He’s since risen from alleged political suicide after dumping PDP to frontrunner presidential candidate whose name is now on everyone’s lips.
In light of new trends, last night, I asked my neighbour who is the INEC coordinator of my local government area to predict the outcome of the elections. He told me this would be the most unpredictable three-horse race ever (between LP, APC—and maybe PDP). But one thing he’s sure of: this election will be determined by the youths, the largest voting block—albeit with a caveat: if only we will actually come out to vote and protect our votes.
Question: what do you think the next president needs to do within his first 100 days to set his government up for success? Please let me know in the comments.
The Perils
I quite agree with my neighbour because I reckon that the biggest threats to the elections are not new things: electoral violence and vote buying are problems as old as Nigeria’s troubled history. And even with all the miracles pundits seem to think the BVAS system can achieve, technology is still only as credible as the human beings that operate them. A few hours ago, I learned that Senator Adeleke’s victory at the 2022 gubernatorial polls was overturned due to some BVAS discrepancies, so what gives?
There have also been attacks on INEC offices and election facilities lately in attempts to undermine the electoral process. If it’s not safe for people to come out and vote on election day, how will they leave their houses? Less than a month to the general elections, fuel queues are worsening by the minute, quality of life is drastically reducing, poverty and rising inflation are eating up the country and Nigeria is the most insecure it’s ever been. We’ll need a miracle to go through this period without casualties.
Granted, President Buhari has promised improved security to encourage free-and-fair elections, but he’s running out of time to make good on those promises.
And then again, even if Peter Obi, the people’s popular choice, wins the presidential election, we must manage our expectations. Whoever ascends Nigeria’s chief executive officer has his work cut out for him. If by some miracle, the election goes smoothly, the newly elected government will have to address the last eight years of rapid decline and course-correct this country from plunging headlong into ruin. It’ll have an unenviable challenge to create the kind of democracy that can drive Nigeria upwards and onwards.
President Buhari has promised improved security to encourage free-and-fair elections, but he’s running out of time to make good on those promises.
Elections alone don’t translate to accountable, democratic governance. Whoever wins in 2023 is unlikely to make any huge improvements if the institutions surrounding it aren’t revamped. The Buhari-APC tenure was built on anti-corruption rhetoric but has been a complete disaster for its run. Its National Assembly, Central Bank, security agencies, and state and local governments have been utterly corrupt and ineffective as well, making the entire country careen towards failure for eight years.
Conversations in the media tend to tread the path of oversimplifying issues, but if we were to look beyond the social media hype and do a threat analysis, we would have to put as much effort into the presidential elections as other elections. I hope Peter Obi will win the elections, however, do you know your senatorial district candidates and your state and federal representatives well?
One thing is clear though: 2023 presidential elections are bound to be elections like no other—a time period where culture, history, tribal and religious sentiments come to a head; a showdown between the old and new order, the establishment and the people. Whoever wins will have a mountain to defeat. We must embody both heavy-hearted hope and cautious optimism going into the electoral year while making sure we come out #VoteWisely on February 25th and beyond.
See you next Friday. Meantime, I’m looking forward to reading your thoughts. Please let me know in the comments.
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